ER + VW — EMA Ribbon + VWAP, HTF-aligned
BYBIT DEMOLIVE
Two systems sharing one account: ER (5-EMA ribbon pullback, ETH/SOL/ADA/DOGE, 3-4R TP) and VW (VWAP wick-touch, all 6 symbols, 1.5-2.5R TP), both gated on 3-timeframe (1h/2h/4h) HTF alignment. Only one of ER/VW may hold a position on a given symbol at a time. Risk: per-symbol 0.88-1.20% of equity, throttled to 5/8 or 3/8 at 85%/75% of peak equity (full restore at 95% of peak). Re-validated 2026-07-12: full 2021-2026 backtest, 10 random 2-3mo periods, a 20-quarter block-bootstrap simulating 4 years live, and a concurrency sensitivity grid — all profitable, mean EV +0.26R/trade, 14/16 positive quarters.
Total Return-28.9%$500.4268 → $356
Equity$355.92
Win Rate20.0%100 closed trades
Profit Factor0.55
Max Drawdown-30.1%
Open Trades0
Open Trades
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ER / VW Symbol States
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Equity Curve
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Performance Breakdown
Symbol
| Symbol | Trades ↓ | Win % ↕ | Avg R ↕ |
|---|---|---|---|
| DOGE | 26 | 19% | -0.31R |
| ETH | 23 | 13% | -0.92R |
| ADA | 21 | 19% | -0.41R |
| SOL | 19 | 32% | +0.07R |
| BTC | 6 | 0% | -1.47R |
| XRP | 5 | 40% | -0.23R |
System
| System | Trades ↓ | Win % ↕ | Avg R ↕ |
|---|---|---|---|
| ER | 66 | 17% | -0.39R |
| VW | 34 | 26% | -0.60R |
Direction
| Direction | Trades ↓ | Win % ↕ | Avg R ↕ |
|---|---|---|---|
| long | 52 | 21% | -0.36R |
| short | 48 | 19% | -0.58R |
Monthly Returns
| Month | Return | Trades | Win Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| September 2026 | -11.9% | 26 | 8% |
| August 2026 | -8.5% | 49 | 27% |
| July 2026 | -11.7% | 26 | 19% |
Exchange fees shown per trade (expand any row) — calculate yours and compare rates across crypto exchanges on
tradefeecalc.com →Trade History
100 trades| Date↕ | System↕ | Symbol↕ | Dir↕ | Entry | Exit | PnL (R)↕ | PnL ($)↕ | Result↕ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▶ | 9/19/2026 | ER | DOGE | ▲ | 0.0897 | 0.08843 | -1.1R | -$1.26 | LOSS |
| ▶ | 9/19/2026 | ER | ADA | ▲ | 0.2255 | 0.221 | -1.1R | -$1.56 | LOSS |
| ▶ | 9/17/2026 | ER | ADA | ▼ | 0.1946 | 0.1981 | -1.0R | -$1.47 | LOSS |
| ▶ | 9/16/2026 | ER | DOGE | ▼ | 0.08006 | 0.0808 | -1.0R | -$1.24 | LOSS |
| ▶ | 9/14/2026 | ER | ETH | ▲ | 2550.36 | 2526.77 | -0.9R | -$1.53 | LOSS |
| ▶ | 9/13/2026 | VW | SOL | ▼ | 100.67 | 100.94 | -1.3R | -$1.73 | LOSS |
| ▶ | 9/11/2026 | VW | ETH | ▲ | 2535.94 | 2531.05 | -1.4R | -$1.90 | LOSS |
| ▶ | 9/11/2026 | VW | ETH | ▲ | 2535.73 | 2530.47 | -1.3R | -$1.86 | LOSS |
| ▶ | 9/11/2026 | ER | SOL | ▼ | 99.35 | 100.65 | -1.1R | -$1.66 | LOSS |
| ▶ | 9/9/2026 | ER | ETH | ▲ | 2509.42 | 2496.4 | -1.2R | -$1.94 | LOSS |
| ▶ | 9/9/2026 | ER | ETH | ▲ | 2501.43 | 2496.53 | -1.4R | -$2.30 | LOSS |
| ▶ | 9/8/2026 | ER | ADA | ▲ | 0.2249 | 0.2211 | -1.0R | -$1.53 | LOSS |
| ▶ | 9/7/2026 | ER | SOL | ▲ | 105.44 | 104.42 | -1.0R | -$2.59 | LOSS |
| ▶ | 9/6/2026 | ER | DOGE | ▲ | 0.09053 | 0.08899 | -0.8R | -$1.80 | LOSS |
| ▶ | 9/6/2026 | VW | ADA | ▲ | 0.2185 | 0.2183 | -1.3R | -$3.02 | LOSS |
| ▶ | 9/6/2026 | ER | ETH | ▲ | 2500.85 | 2485.4 | -1.0R | -$2.77 | LOSS |
| ▶ | 9/6/2026 | ER | ADA | ▲ | 0.2212 | 0.2195 | -1.1R | -$2.77 | LOSS |
| ▶ | 9/6/2026 | VW | SOL | ▲ | 103.07 | 103.5 | +1.6R | +$3.78 | WIN |
| ▶ | 9/2/2026 | VW | BTC | ▼ | 77072 | 77227.9 | -1.3R | -$3.21 | LOSS |
| ▶ | 9/2/2026 | VW | XRP | ▼ | 1.3416 | 1.3331 | +1.3R | +$3.22 | WIN |
| ▶ | 9/2/2026 | VW | ETH | ▼ | 2404.36 | 2409.66 | -1.4R | -$3.34 | LOSS |
| ▶ | 9/2/2026 | VW | BTC | ▼ | 77170.7 | 77295.6 | -1.4R | -$3.47 | LOSS |
| ▶ | 9/2/2026 | ER | DOGE | ▼ | 0.08104 | 0.0814 | -1.0R | -$2.27 | LOSS |
| ▶ | 9/2/2026 | ER | ETH | ▼ | 2409.83 | 2427.25 | -1.1R | -$3.27 | LOSS |
| ▶ | 9/2/2026 | ER | DOGE | ▼ | 0.0811 | 0.0818 | -1.1R | -$2.36 | LOSS |
| ▶ | 9/1/2026 | VW | BTC | ▲ | 78564.4 | 78470 | -1.7R | -$4.35 | LOSS |
| ▶ | 8/28/2026 | ER | SOL | ▲ | 107.27 | 104.78 | -1.0R | -$2.82 | LOSS |
| ▶ | 8/22/2026 | VW | XRP | ▲ | 1.5227 | 1.4279 | -1.0R | -$2.66 | LOSS |
| ▶ | 8/22/2026 | VW | SOL | ▲ | 93.92 | 92.8 | -1.0R | -$2.64 | LOSS |
| ▶ | 8/22/2026 | VW | ETH | ▲ | 2432.66 | 2420.96 | -1.1R | -$2.97 | LOSS |
| ▶ | 8/22/2026 | VW | DOGE | ▲ | 0.0896 | 0.08769 | -1.0R | -$2.75 | LOSS |
| ▶ | 8/22/2026 | VW | ADA | ▲ | 0.2281 | 0.2217 | -1.0R | -$2.74 | LOSS |
| ▶ | 8/22/2026 | ER | ETH | ▲ | 2505.85 | 2458.2 | -1.0R | -$2.97 | LOSS |
| ▶ | 8/22/2026 | ER | SOL | ▲ | 91.14 | 96.28 | +2.9R | +$8.08 | WIN |
| ▶ | 8/21/2026 | ER | ADA | ▲ | 0.2122 | 0.2276 | +3.0R | +$7.73 | WIN |
| ▶ | 8/21/2026 | ER | DOGE | ▲ | 0.0805 | 0.08997 | +4.0R | +$8.76 | WIN |
| ▶ | 8/20/2026 | ER | DOGE | ▲ | 0.07698 | 0.08251 | +3.9R | +$8.40 | WIN |
| ▶ | 8/19/2026 | VW | ETH | ▲ | 1909.95 | 1906.86 | -1.5R | -$3.71 | LOSS |
| ▶ | 8/19/2026 | ER | ETH | ▲ | 1911.93 | 1906.55 | -1.4R | -$4.08 | LOSS |
| ▶ | 8/19/2026 | ER | SOL | ▲ | 76.99 | 76.72 | -1.2R | -$3.41 | LOSS |
| ▶ | 8/18/2026 | ER | SOL | ▲ | 76.07 | 76.59 | +2.7R | +$7.50 | WIN |
| ▶ | 8/18/2026 | ER | ETH | ▲ | 1908.13 | 1901.4 | -1.2R | -$3.65 | LOSS |
| ▶ | 8/18/2026 | ER | SOL | ▲ | 75.98 | 75.75 | -1.2R | -$3.50 | LOSS |
| ▶ | 8/16/2026 | ER | ADA | ▼ | 0.1769 | 0.1806 | -1.1R | -$2.85 | LOSS |
| ▶ | 8/16/2026 | ER | DOGE | ▼ | 0.0697 | 0.0698 | -1.3R | -$2.84 | LOSS |
| ▶ | 8/15/2026 | ER | ADA | ▼ | 0.1789 | 0.1806 | -1.1R | -$2.85 | LOSS |
| ▶ | 8/14/2026 | ER | ADA | ▼ | 0.1796 | 0.1808 | -1.0R | -$2.74 | LOSS |
| ▶ | 8/14/2026 | VW | BTC | ▼ | 62977.2 | 63074.5 | -1.4R | -$3.76 | LOSS |
| ▶ | 8/14/2026 | ER | ETH | ▼ | 1875.88 | 1880.76 | -1.3R | -$4.09 | LOSS |
| ▶ | 8/14/2026 | ER | DOGE | ▼ | 0.06943 | 0.0697 | -1.4R | -$3.23 | LOSS |
| ▶ | 8/13/2026 | VW | BTC | ▼ | 63409.9 | 63527.5 | -1.4R | -$3.63 | LOSS |
| ▶ | 8/13/2026 | VW | XRP | ▼ | 1.0049 | 1.0079 | -1.3R | -$3.49 | LOSS |
| ▶ | 8/12/2026 | ER | DOGE | ▲ | 0.0718 | 0.07109 | -1.1R | -$2.61 | LOSS |
| ▶ | 8/11/2026 | ER | DOGE | ▲ | 0.0708 | 0.0729 | +3.9R | +$9.19 | WIN |
| ▶ | 8/11/2026 | ER | DOGE | ▲ | 0.07067 | 0.0703 | -1.3R | -$3.10 | LOSS |
| ▶ | 8/7/2026 | VW | BTC | ▲ | 64800.4 | 64711.7 | -1.5R | -$4.12 | LOSS |
| ▶ | 8/7/2026 | VW | ETH | ▲ | 1913.34 | 1918.34 | +1.1R | +$2.89 | WIN |
| ▶ | 8/7/2026 | ER | SOL | ▼ | 72.62 | 73.07 | -1.1R | -$3.31 | LOSS |
| ▶ | 8/7/2026 | VW | ADA | ▲ | 0.2007 | 0.2024 | +2.2R | +$5.92 | WIN |
| ▶ | 8/7/2026 | ER | DOGE | ▼ | 0.06892 | 0.06911 | -1.0R | -$2.34 | LOSS |
| ▶ | 8/6/2026 | ER | ADA | ▲ | 0.2035 | 0.1996 | -1.0R | -$2.84 | LOSS |
| ▶ | 8/6/2026 | VW | XRP | ▼ | 1.0488 | 1.0362 | +1.4R | +$3.74 | WIN |
| ▶ | 8/6/2026 | VW | DOGE | ▼ | 0.0698 | 0.07 | -1.4R | -$6.12 | LOSS |
| ▶ | 8/6/2026 | ER | DOGE | ▼ | 0.0698 | 0.0699 | -0.8R | -$3.08 | LOSS |
| ▶ | 8/5/2026 | VW | XRP | ▼ | 1.0673 | 1.0688 | -1.5R | -$6.81 | LOSS |
| ▶ | 8/5/2026 | ER | ADA | ▲ | 0.1917 | 0.1885 | -1.1R | -$5.17 | LOSS |
| ▶ | 8/5/2026 | VW | DOGE | ▼ | 0.07 | 0.0701 | -1.9R | -$8.73 | LOSS |
| ▶ | 8/5/2026 | VW | DOGE | ▼ | 0.07 | 0.0698 | +1.8R | +$8.29 | WIN |
| ▶ | 8/5/2026 | ER | DOGE | ▼ | 0.0698 | 0.07 | -1.6R | -$6.33 | LOSS |
| ▶ | 8/3/2026 | ER | ETH | ▼ | 1844.06 | 1856.05 | -1.1R | -$6.15 | LOSS |
| ▶ | 8/2/2026 | ER | ADA | ▲ | 0.1745 | 0.1792 | +2.9R | +$13.31 | WIN |
| ▶ | 8/2/2026 | ER | SOL | ▼ | 71.71 | 72.3 | -1.1R | -$5.32 | LOSS |
| ▶ | 8/2/2026 | VW | ETH | ▼ | 1847.29 | 1842.79 | +0.9R | +$4.02 | WIN |
| ▶ | 8/1/2026 | VW | ADA | ▲ | 0.1721 | 0.1715 | -1.2R | -$5.53 | LOSS |
| ▶ | 8/1/2026 | ER | SOL | ▼ | 72.94 | 72.14 | +2.8R | +$13.75 | WIN |
| ▶ | 7/31/2026 | ER | DOGE | ▼ | 0.06942 | 0.0699 | -1.1R | -$4.30 | LOSS |
| ▶ | 7/30/2026 | ER | ETH | ▲ | 1920.19 | 1916.09 | -1.4R | -$7.42 | LOSS |
| ▶ | 7/30/2026 | VW | DOGE | ▼ | 0.0701 | 0.0702 | -1.9R | -$8.82 | LOSS |
| ▶ | 7/28/2026 | ER | DOGE | ▼ | 0.07002 | 0.07051 | -1.1R | -$4.63 | LOSS |
| ▶ | 7/28/2026 | ER | SOL | ▼ | 73.1 | 73.7 | -1.1R | -$5.77 | LOSS |
| ▶ | 7/27/2026 | ER | ETH | ▲ | 1963.24 | 1948.87 | -1.2R | -$6.65 | LOSS |
| ▶ | 7/24/2026 | ER | DOGE | ▼ | 0.06924 | 0.06989 | -1.1R | -$4.55 | LOSS |
| ▶ | 7/23/2026 | ER | DOGE | ▼ | 0.07236 | 0.07142 | +3.7R | +$15.43 | WIN |
| ▶ | 7/22/2026 | VW | ADA | ▲ | 0.1745 | 0.1741 | -1.3R | -$6.30 | LOSS |
| ▶ | 7/22/2026 | ER | ADA | ▲ | 0.1769 | 0.1747 | -1.1R | -$5.29 | LOSS |
| ▶ | 7/21/2026 | ER | SOL | ▲ | 77.92 | 77.49 | -1.1R | -$6.03 | LOSS |
| ▶ | 7/21/2026 | ER | ADA | ▲ | 0.1762 | 0.1735 | -1.1R | -$5.45 | LOSS |
| ▶ | 7/21/2026 | ER | ETH | ▲ | 1938.12 | 1925.85 | -1.1R | -$6.72 | LOSS |
| ▶ | 7/20/2026 | VW | ETH | ▲ | 1870.09 | 1875.31 | +1.2R | +$5.72 | WIN |
| ▶ | 7/20/2026 | ER | DOGE | ▼ | 0.07262 | 0.07312 | -1.2R | -$5.48 | LOSS |
| ▶ | 7/19/2026 | ER | ETH | ▲ | 1870.24 | 1865.97 | -1.5R | -$9.24 | LOSS |
| ▶ | 7/17/2026 | VW | ADA | ▼ | 0.161 | 0.1591 | +2.5R | +$12.57 | WIN |
| ▶ | 7/17/2026 | VW | ADA | ▼ | 0.1615 | 0.1617 | -1.6R | -$8.07 | LOSS |
| ▶ | 7/16/2026 | ER | SOL | ▼ | 75.9 | 74.98 | +2.9R | +$15.63 | WIN |
| ▶ | 7/16/2026 | ER | ETH | ▲ | 1919.42 | 1895 | -1.1R | -$6.23 | LOSS |
| ▶ | 7/14/2026 | ER | ADA | ▼ | 0.1616 | 0.1638 | -1.0R | -$5.44 | LOSS |
| ▶ | 7/14/2026 | ER | DOGE | ▼ | 0.0725 | 0.0733 | -1.1R | -$4.51 | LOSS |
| ▶ | 7/14/2026 | ER | SOL | ▼ | 74.73 | 75.32 | -1.1R | -$6.26 | LOSS |
| ▶ | 7/13/2026 | ER | SOL | ▼ | 76.44 | 75.8 | +2.8R | +$15.33 | WIN |
| ▶ | 7/13/2026 | ER | SOL | ▼ | 76.34 | 76.79 | -1.1R | -$6.28 | LOSS |